There are a lot of headwinds in the cycling industry as of late, including decreases in ebike retail sales in the US and Europe. Then came the realization that tariffs were going to expire mid way through June 2024. For many at the retail level, this came as a surprise. But if you worked in supply chain, this was much more predictable. We can see the first evidence of this. While 2024 saw ebike imports lower than the last two years, May and June shot up considerably.
It is pretty impressive how these shipments stacked up just prior to the implementation of the tariff. Well, it’s not quite as clear cut a success as it might seem. Even though a lot of shipments arrived prior to June 14th, the volume of units did not drop off there after. My guess, is its frankly hard to time sea shipments perfectly, and some missed the window to get those ebikes into the US prior to the expiration of the tariff exclusion.
Could it be a trend of increased imports?
We have seen some slowing in the decline of imports in Europe, and some positive news from brands. However, the reality is that a lot of businesses are still struggling with cash flow constraints, and are more likely to plan conservatively on imports for the remainder of 2024. My guess is we will see imports at an elevated level in July, but regress to prior years before falling off more sharply toward the end of the year. We’ll see over the coming months how this prediction plays out.
There is a lot of upside for those brands who are seeing growth and strong financials in 2024 to seize on the opportunity to lean in while other brands struggle to avoid stock outs.