June shipping manifest data reverses some of the shifts seen in May, with increased Ebike imports and slightly declined traditional imports. Nonetheless, traditional bike imports continue to be at elevated levels, putting strain on a market struggling with sell through constraints. For those paying attention to wholesale inventories reported by People for Bikes, and publicized by Bicycle Retailer, this pain will be little surprise.
As we can see from the following chart, the ratio of Ebike to traditional bicycles on shipping manifests appear to be converging on 20%. We will likely continue to see fluctuations in both the absolute quantity of imports and the ratio of Ebikes as the industry struggles to work through the inventory challenges currently faced throughout the US.
The global bicycle industry has experienced significant fluctuations in recent times, with imports being a key indicator of market trends. In this blog post, we will delve into the latest import figures, focusing on traditional bikes and electric bikes. Although disruptions to supply chains have somewhat skewed the comparison data, the numbers still provide valuable insights into the current state of the industry.
Traditional Bike Imports on the Rise:
Over the past month, imports of traditional bikes have seen a notable surge, increasing by 26% month-over-month (MoM) and an impressive 38% year-over-year (YoY). These figures may appear substantial at first glance, but it’s important to consider the backdrop of recent disruptions in supply chains, which have affected the availability of traditional bikes. As a result, the comparison data should be viewed with caution.
Understanding the Distortions:
Supply chain disruptions caused by various factors, such as the waning global pandemic and trade restrictions, have created challenges for the bicycle industry. These disruptions have led to inconsistencies in manufacturing, shipping, and distribution processes. Therefore, while the increased import numbers are positive for traditional bikes, they must be interpreted in light of the distorted comparison data resulting from the recent industry upheavals.
Electric Bike Imports Experience a Dip:
In contrast to the upward trend seen in traditional bike imports, electric bike imports have experienced a decline. Import figures show a decrease of 16% MoM and approximately 22% YoY. This decline has resulted in the lowest monthly import number for electric bikes since April 2020. Consequently, the proportion of electric bike imports relative to traditional bike imports has fallen to 10.4%.
Factors Influencing Electric Bike Imports:
Several factors may have contributed to the recent decline in electric bike imports. Firstly, the disruptions in global supply chains have impacted the availability of components necessary for manufacturing electric bikes, leading to production delays and reduced imports. Additionally, market saturation may have played a role in dampening demand growth for electric bikes. In response, brands may be adjusting their inventories to revised projections.
Conclusion:
The import trends in the bicycle industry provide valuable insights into the current state of the market. While traditional bike imports have seen a significant increase, it is crucial to consider the distortions caused by disruptions to supply chains. On the other hand, the decline in electric bike imports can be attributed to a combination of supply chain challenges, changing consumer economic sentiment, and potential temporary market saturation. As the industry continues to navigate these challenges, it is essential for businesses and consumers alike to stay informed and adapt to the evolving dynamics of the bicycle market.
This post marks the beginning of our monthly report series, where we break down US container ship imports using Bills of Lading (BOL) data. Our primary objective is to provide electric bike import data, which has been lacking in public discourse due to inconsistent use of the proper Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes. But before we delve into the methodology, let’s whet your appetite with a chart showcasing electric and traditional bike imports since 2019.
Initially, the volume of traditional bicycle imports dwarfs that of electric bikes. However, when we examine the import share of units, a trend begins to emerge. The unit share of electric bikes follows a seasonal pattern and is trending upward. The latest peaks in late 2022, reaching 30%, are somewhat surprising but may be slightly misleading, as they coincide with a substantial decline in traditional bike imports in the fourth quarter of 2022. To gain a grounded perspective, it’s important to pay attention to the longer-term trend. Electric bike imports are increasing as a proportion of the overall inflows and are likely to continue doing so in the foreseeable future.
Where does this data come from?
All importers of goods are required to fill out bills of lading (BOL), which document the imported items and the applicable Harmonized System (HS) codes. These bills of lading are consolidated by a vessel into a shipping manifest, which must be transmitted to US officials at least 24 hours prior to loading on the vessel. This shipping manifest data serves as our primary source of information on US imports. Once the shipment arrives in the US, a tariff invoice is compiled for each specific item in the shipment. This invoice is what informs the US ITC Dataweb Service.
However, there are some challenges associated with this data. Firstly, the HS code is not the same as the US government’s HTS codes, and only one code per shipment needs to be applied, even if it is a blended container. As a result, sometimes the codes will be for entirely unrelated products. Secondly, value declarations are not provided with the BOL.
Isn’t this data public?
While this data is technically in the public domain, it is not as readily available as the aggregate invoice data released by the government. US officials make import data available through three methods: 1. Direct sharing with specific partner companies such as S&P Global (Panjiva) 2. Aggregate statistics released through the USITC website. 3. Freedom of Information Act requests.
Is the data accurate?
When we talk about accuracy, we refer to the repeatability of a result. Since we use the same dataset and model for each report, the resulting data is accurate. Even as we adjust the model, we will do so retroactively, ensuring that subsequent posts reflect the newly adjusted figures.
However, it’s important to note that these numbers are NOT precise. For example, the estimated 151,349 bikes delivered in January 2019 is very likely not the exact figure. This discrepancy arises from how this data is loaded into BOL databases. Undercounting may occur when bikes are grouped into larger quantity units, such as pallets or larger boxes, which is particularly common with small balance bikes or children’s bikes. On the other hand, overcounting of units may occur when a bicycle shipment is blended with other items that may not all appear in the “product description” field of the BOL data.
Should we trust this data? Absolutely. It serves as an indicator that was previously unavailable, contributing to a better understanding of emerging trends. Just as with visitors to a brands website, this is just one of many indicators that should be used to inform our perspective.
Where do we go from here?
We aim to establish Bicycle Market Research as a consistent source of this import data by providing aggregate-level information for free on our website. We analyze this data using a model that is still in development. As both the data and model are updated, we will continue to post refined data.
