US Shipping manifests indicated a slight decrease in ebike imports from November to December 2023. In the chart above we can see how both 2022 and 2023 imports were heavier in the final two quarters of the year.
Turning to annual figures, 2023 looks to be a retraction in the import rate for ebikes. This falls in line with figures reported by Circana and People for Bikes showing a slight decrease in ebike sell through in the IBD and ROM sales channels. With continued significant inventory strain of the market, we expect 2024 to remain similar to 2023, with a return to growth in 2025 as excess warehouse space is eliminated.
If we look below at the rate of change of YoY import growth, we see a small snapshot of the bull whip effect created by supply shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that Ebikes have been gaining strong ground for years, even with a temporary slow down in sales, we expect to see demand outpacing supply in 2025 and beyond.
